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Concórdia vs Cascavel — Serie D 2018

Concórdia
Concórdia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cascavel
Cascavel
5/26/2024Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Domingos Machado de Lima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Concórdia48%
×Draw29%
Cascavel24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concórdia
1.30
Cascavel
0.82

Concórdia creates 59% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 51 away

creates per match

Concórdia
1.50
Cascavel
0.94

allows per match

Concórdia
0.71
Cascavel
1.10

finishing

Concórdia+0.00on par
Cascavel+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concórdia ↓

Cascavel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Concórdia or draw
76%
Concórdia or Cascavel
71%
Draw or Cascavel
52%

Winning margin

Concórdia wins by 2+
22%
Cascavel wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Concórdia 1+ goals
73%
Concórdia 2+ goals
37%
Concórdia 3+ goals
14%
Cascavel 1+ goals
56%
Cascavel 2+ goals
20%
Cascavel 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Concórdia (draw refunded)
67%
Cascavel (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concórdia at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Cascavel away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concórdia attack 1.50 + Cascavel defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.30

Cascavel attack 0.94 + Concórdia defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Concórdia scores more
48%
level
29%
Cascavel scores more
24%

Concórdia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Concórdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Concórdia vs Cascavel

Concórdia beat Cascavel 1-0 in Serie D on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Domingos Machado de Lima in Concórdia, Santa Catarina.