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Cascavel vs Concórdia — Serie D 2018

Cascavel
Cascavel
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Concórdia
Concórdia
6/23/2024Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Olímpico Regional Jacy Miguel Scanagatta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cascavel47%
×Draw31%
Concórdia23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cascavel
1.18
Concórdia
0.72

Cascavel creates 64% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cascavel
1.29
Concórdia
0.50

allows per match

Cascavel
0.94
Concórdia
1.07

finishing

Cascavel+0.00on par
Concórdia+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cascavel ↓

Concórdia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Cascavel or draw
77%
Cascavel or Concórdia
69%
Draw or Concórdia
53%

Winning margin

Cascavel wins by 2+
21%
Concórdia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cascavel 1+ goals
69%
Cascavel 2+ goals
33%
Cascavel 3+ goals
12%
Concórdia 1+ goals
51%
Concórdia 2+ goals
16%
Concórdia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cascavel (draw refunded)
68%
Concórdia (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cascavel at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 52 matches

Concórdia away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cascavel attack 1.29 + Concórdia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Concórdia attack 0.50 + Cascavel defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cascavel scores more
47%
level
31%
Concórdia scores more
23%

Cascavel at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cascavel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Cascavel 1–0 Concórdia

Cascavel beat Concórdia 1-0 in Serie D on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Olímpico Regional Jacy Miguel Scanagatta in Cascavel, Paraná.