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Concórdia vs Brasil DE Pelotas — Serie D 2018

Concórdia
Concórdia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Brasil DE Pelotas
Brasil DE Pelotas
4/28/2024Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Domingos Machado de Lima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Concórdia54%
×Draw27%
Brasil DE Pelotas19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concórdia
1.41
Brasil DE Pelotas
0.70

Concórdia creates 101% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 29 away

creates per match

Concórdia
1.50
Brasil DE Pelotas
0.69

allows per match

Concórdia
0.71
Brasil DE Pelotas
1.31

finishing

Concórdia+0.00on par
Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concórdia ↓

Brasil DE Pelotas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Concórdia or draw
81%
Concórdia or Brasil DE Pelotas
73%
Draw or Brasil DE Pelotas
46%

Winning margin

Concórdia wins by 2+
27%
Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Concórdia 1+ goals
76%
Concórdia 2+ goals
41%
Concórdia 3+ goals
17%
Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals
50%
Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals
16%
Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Concórdia (draw refunded)
74%
Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concórdia at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Brasil DE Pelotas away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concórdia attack 1.50 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.41

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 0.69 + Concórdia defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Concórdia scores more
54%
level
27%
Brasil DE Pelotas scores more
19%

Concórdia at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Concórdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Concórdia 2–0 Brasil DE Pelotas

Concórdia beat Brasil DE Pelotas 2-0 in Serie D on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Domingos Machado de Lima in Concórdia, Santa Catarina.