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Brasil DE Pelotas vs Concórdia — Serie D 2018

Brasil DE Pelotas
Brasil DE Pelotas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Concórdia
Concórdia
7/22/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 14Estádio Bento da Silva Freitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Brasil DE Pelotas49%
×Draw30%
Concórdia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brasil DE Pelotas
1.21
Concórdia
0.68

Brasil DE Pelotas creates 78% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 14 away

creates per match

Brasil DE Pelotas
1.34
Concórdia
0.50

allows per match

Brasil DE Pelotas
0.86
Concórdia
1.07

finishing

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par
Concórdia+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasil DE Pelotas ↓

Concórdia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Brasil DE Pelotas or draw
79%
Brasil DE Pelotas or Concórdia
70%
Draw or Concórdia
51%

Winning margin

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+
22%
Concórdia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals
70%
Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals
34%
Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals
12%
Concórdia 1+ goals
49%
Concórdia 2+ goals
15%
Concórdia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)
70%
Concórdia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasil DE Pelotas at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

Concórdia away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 1.34 + Concórdia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Concórdia attack 0.50 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more
49%
level
30%
Concórdia scores more
21%

Brasil DE Pelotas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Brasil DE Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brasil DE Pelotas vs Concórdia

Brasil DE Pelotas beat Concórdia 1-0 in Serie D on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Bento da Silva Freitas in Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul.