Concorde 1–1 AS Entou: Result & Stats

Concorde

FT

1 – 1

AS Entou

10/20/2023

Premier League · Round 4Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Concorde48%

×Draw26%

AS Entou26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConcordeExpected goals in this matchAS Entou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.06

Concorde

1.52

AS Entou

1.06

Concorde creates 43% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 13 away

1.12

creates per match

1.08

1.04

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Concorde

1.12

AS Entou

1.08

allows per match

Concorde

1.04

AS Entou

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concorde+0.00on par

AS Entou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concorde ↓

AS Entou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Concorde or draw

74%

Concorde or AS Entou

74%

Draw or AS Entou

52%

Winning margin

Concorde wins by 2+

24%

AS Entou wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Concorde 1+ goals

78%

Concorde 2+ goals

45%

Concorde 3+ goals

20%

AS Entou 1+ goals

65%

AS Entou 2+ goals

29%

AS Entou 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Concorde (draw refunded)

64%

AS Entou (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concorde at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.04 · 49 matches

AS Entou away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concorde attack 1.12 + AS Entou defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.52

AS Entou attack 1.08 + Concorde defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Concorde scores more

48%

level

26%

AS Entou scores more

26%

Concorde at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Concorde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff