Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AS Entou vs Concorde — Premier League 2020

AS Entou
AS Entou
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Concorde
Concorde
3/9/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AS Entou24%
×Draw23%
Concorde54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Entou
1.15
Concorde
1.85

Concorde creates 61% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 51 away

creates per match

AS Entou
1.08
Concorde
1.08

allows per match

AS Entou
2.62
Concorde
1.22

finishing

AS Entou+0.00on par
Concorde+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Entou ↓

Concorde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

AS Entou or draw
46%
AS Entou or Concorde
77%
Draw or Concorde
76%

Winning margin

AS Entou wins by 2+
9%
Concorde wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

AS Entou 1+ goals
68%
AS Entou 2+ goals
32%
AS Entou 3+ goals
11%
Concorde 1+ goals
84%
Concorde 2+ goals
55%
Concorde 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

AS Entou (draw refunded)
31%
Concorde (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Entou at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

Concorde away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Entou attack 1.08 + Concorde defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Concorde attack 1.08 + AS Entou defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

AS Entou scores more
24%
level
23%
Concorde scores more
54%

Concorde at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Concorde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Entou vs Concorde

AS Entou and Concorde drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.