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Comunicaciones vs Sacachispas — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Comunicaciones
Comunicaciones
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sacachispas
Sacachispas
2/13/2024Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 2Estadio Alfredo Ramos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Comunicaciones45%
×Draw30%
Sacachispas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comunicaciones
1.19
Sacachispas
0.80

Comunicaciones creates 49% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 110 away

creates per match

Comunicaciones
1.16
Sacachispas
0.65

allows per match

Comunicaciones
0.95
Sacachispas
1.21

finishing

Comunicaciones+0.00on par
Sacachispas+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comunicaciones ↓

Sacachispas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Comunicaciones or draw
75%
Comunicaciones or Sacachispas
70%
Draw or Sacachispas
55%

Winning margin

Comunicaciones wins by 2+
20%
Sacachispas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Comunicaciones 1+ goals
70%
Comunicaciones 2+ goals
33%
Comunicaciones 3+ goals
12%
Sacachispas 1+ goals
55%
Sacachispas 2+ goals
19%
Sacachispas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Comunicaciones (draw refunded)
65%
Sacachispas (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comunicaciones at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.95 · 145 matches

Sacachispas away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comunicaciones attack 1.16 + Sacachispas defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sacachispas attack 0.65 + Comunicaciones defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Comunicaciones scores more
45%
level
30%
Sacachispas scores more
25%

Comunicaciones at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Comunicaciones will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Comunicaciones vs Sacachispas

Comunicaciones beat Sacachispas 4-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on February 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Ramos in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.