Sporting de Cabinda 0–1 Kabuscorp: Result & Stats

Sporting de Cabinda

FT

0 – 1

Kabuscorp

8/18/2012

Girabola · Round 22Estádio Nacional de Chiazi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sporting de Cabinda17%

×Draw29%

Kabuscorp54%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting de CabindaExpected goals in this matchKabuscorp

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.59

1.29

Sporting de Cabinda

0.59

Kabuscorp

1.29

Kabuscorp creates 119% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 26 away

0.33

creates per match

0.92

1.67

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Sporting de Cabinda

0.33

Kabuscorp

0.92

allows per match

Sporting de Cabinda

1.67

Kabuscorp

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par

Kabuscorp+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Cabinda ↓

Kabuscorp →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–120%

0–213%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–13%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Sporting de Cabinda or draw

46%

Sporting de Cabinda or Kabuscorp

71%

Draw or Kabuscorp

83%

Winning margin

Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+

4%

Kabuscorp wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals

45%

Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals

12%

Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals

2%

Kabuscorp 1+ goals

72%

Kabuscorp 2+ goals

37%

Kabuscorp 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)

24%

Kabuscorp (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Cabinda at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Kabuscorp away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Cabinda attack 0.33 + Kabuscorp defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.59

Kabuscorp attack 0.92 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sporting de Cabinda scores more

17%

level

29%

Kabuscorp scores more

54%

Kabuscorp at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kabuscorp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff