Compostela 2–2 Pontevedra: Result & Stats

Compostela

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Pontevedra

David Soto 45+2'

Hugo Matos 4'

Dali 58'

Carlos López 12'

4/14/2024

League #875 · Group 1 - 31Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Compostela30%

×Draw25%

Pontevedra44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CompostelaExpected goals in this matchPontevedra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.52

Compostela

1.21

Pontevedra

1.52

Pontevedra creates 26% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 9 away

1.20

creates per match

1.89

1.15

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Compostela

1.20

Pontevedra

1.89

allows per match

Compostela

1.15

Pontevedra

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Compostela+0.00on par

Pontevedra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Compostela ↓

Pontevedra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Compostela or draw

56%

Compostela or Pontevedra

75%

Draw or Pontevedra

70%

Winning margin

Compostela wins by 2+

13%

Pontevedra wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Compostela 1+ goals

70%

Compostela 2+ goals

34%

Compostela 3+ goals

12%

Pontevedra 1+ goals

78%

Pontevedra 2+ goals

45%

Pontevedra 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Compostela (draw refunded)

41%

Pontevedra (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Compostela at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

Pontevedra away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Compostela attack 1.20 + Pontevedra defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Pontevedra attack 1.89 + Compostela defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Compostela scores more

30%

level

25%

Pontevedra scores more

44%

Pontevedra at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pontevedra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

12'

45+2'

58'

62'

Rufo← B. Garay

65'

Roger Escoruela← Hugo Matos

71'

Jordan Domínguez← Manu Ramírez

76'

L. Guèye← Carlos López

76'

Samuel Mayo← Dali

80'

Gonzalo Landeira← Jaime Santos

80'

Manu Barreiro← David Grande

Compostela

Pontevedra

▼

⚽

▼

López

González

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Matos

Manager: Anton Permuy

65'▲Roger Escoruela←▼Hugo Matos

71'▲Jordan Domínguez←▼Manu Ramírez

80'▲Gonzalo Landeira←▼Jaime Santos

80'▲Manu Barreiro←▼David Grande

Compostela substitutes

EscoruelaDomínguezLandeiraBarreiroTrilloHermoTrasancos

Manager: Yago Iglesias

62'▲Rufo←▼B. Garay

76'▲L. Guèye←▼Carlos López

76'▲Samuel Mayo←▼Dali

Pontevedra substitutes

RufoGuèyeMayoZabaletaHermeloVizosoCalvo