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Compostela vs Pontevedra — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Compostela
Compostela
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pontevedra
Pontevedra
B. Garay 65'
8/12/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Compostela15%
×Draw23%
Pontevedra62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Compostela
0.75
Pontevedra
1.79

Pontevedra creates 139% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Compostela
0.00
Pontevedra
1.25

allows per match

Compostela
2.33
Pontevedra
1.50

finishing

Compostela+0.00on par
Pontevedra+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Compostela ↓

Pontevedra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–213%
0–38%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Compostela or draw
38%
Compostela or Pontevedra
77%
Draw or Pontevedra
85%

Winning margin

Compostela wins by 2+
4%
Pontevedra wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Compostela 1+ goals
53%
Compostela 2+ goals
17%
Compostela 3+ goals
4%
Pontevedra 1+ goals
83%
Pontevedra 2+ goals
53%
Pontevedra 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Compostela (draw refunded)
20%
Pontevedra (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Compostela at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Pontevedra away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Compostela attack 0.00 + Pontevedra defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Pontevedra attack 1.25 + Compostela defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Compostela scores more
15%
level
23%
Pontevedra scores more
62%

Pontevedra at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Pontevedra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'
B. Garay

Statistics

CompostelaPontevedra
Overview
1Corners6

Match Recap: Compostela vs Pontevedra

Pontevedra beat Compostela 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 12, 2023.

Goals: B. Garay (65').