Compostela 2–2 Pontevedra: Result & Stats

Compostela

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Pontevedra

Primo Conde 43'

Brais Abelenda 5'

Imanol García 47'

Jorge Fernández 11'

11/28/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Compostela41%

×Draw29%

Pontevedra30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CompostelaExpected goals in this matchPontevedra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.00

Compostela

1.22

Pontevedra

1.00

Compostela creates 22% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 65 away

1.08

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Compostela

1.08

Pontevedra

1.00

allows per match

Compostela

1.00

Pontevedra

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Compostela+0.00on par

Pontevedra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Compostela ↓

Pontevedra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Compostela or draw

70%

Compostela or Pontevedra

71%

Draw or Pontevedra

59%

Winning margin

Compostela wins by 2+

18%

Pontevedra wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Compostela 1+ goals

70%

Compostela 2+ goals

34%

Compostela 3+ goals

12%

Pontevedra 1+ goals

63%

Pontevedra 2+ goals

26%

Pontevedra 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Compostela (draw refunded)

58%

Pontevedra (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Compostela at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Pontevedra away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Compostela attack 1.08 + Pontevedra defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

Pontevedra attack 1.00 + Compostela defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Compostela scores more

41%

level

29%

Pontevedra scores more

30%

Compostela at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Compostela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

11'

43'

47'

60'

Oier Calvillo← Álex González

65'

Josiño← J. Barros

70'

Borja Sánchez← Charles

81'

Gabri Palmás← Miky Villar

Compostela

Pontevedra

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Yago Iglesias

65'▲Josiño←▼J. Barros

81'▲Gabri Palmás←▼Miky Villar

Compostela substitutes

JosiñoPalmásReyTorresGarcíaVespriniBaleatoRodríguezYosi

Manager: Jesús Ramos

60'▲Oier Calvillo←▼Álex González

70'▲Borja Sánchez←▼Charles

Pontevedra substitutes

CalvilloSánchezCruzCortésMartínezDizFernándezBuesoFigueroa

Match Recap: Compostela vs Pontevedra

Compostela and Pontevedra drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 28, 2020.

Goals: Brais Abelenda (5'), Jorge Fernández (11'), Primo Conde (43'), Imanol García (47').

The match was played at Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro in Santiago de Compostela.

Compostela vs Pontevedra — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Compostela vs Pontevedra