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Compostela vs Numancia — League #875 2026

Compostela
Compostela
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Numancia
Numancia
1/12/2025League #875League #875 · Group 1 - 18Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Compostela32%
×Draw28%
Numancia40%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Compostela
1.05
Numancia
1.22

Numancia creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Compostela
1.27
Numancia
1.17

allows per match

Compostela
1.27
Numancia
0.83

finishing

Compostela+0.00on par
Numancia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Compostela ↓

Numancia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Compostela or draw
60%
Compostela or Numancia
72%
Draw or Numancia
68%

Winning margin

Compostela wins by 2+
12%
Numancia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Compostela 1+ goals
65%
Compostela 2+ goals
28%
Compostela 3+ goals
9%
Numancia 1+ goals
70%
Numancia 2+ goals
34%
Numancia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Compostela (draw refunded)
44%
Numancia (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Compostela at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Numancia away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Compostela attack 1.27 + Numancia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.05

Numancia attack 1.17 + Compostela defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Compostela scores more
32%
level
28%
Numancia scores more
40%

Numancia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Compostela vs Numancia

Compostela and Numancia drew 2-2 in League #875 on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro in Santiago de Compostela.