Compostela 1–2 Numancia: Result & Stats

Compostela

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Numancia

David Soto 90'

M. Sanhaji 69'

Asier Benito 44'

4/3/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Compostela35%

×Draw32%

Numancia33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CompostelaExpected goals in this matchNumancia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

0.92

Compostela

0.96

Numancia

0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.08

creates per match

0.83

1.00

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Compostela

1.08

Numancia

0.83

allows per match

Compostela

1.00

Numancia

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Compostela+0.00on par

Numancia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Compostela ↓

Numancia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Compostela or draw

67%

Compostela or Numancia

68%

Draw or Numancia

65%

Winning margin

Compostela wins by 2+

13%

Numancia wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Compostela 1+ goals

62%

Compostela 2+ goals

25%

Compostela 3+ goals

7%

Numancia 1+ goals

60%

Numancia 2+ goals

23%

Numancia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Compostela (draw refunded)

52%

Numancia (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Compostela at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Numancia away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Compostela attack 1.08 + Numancia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

Numancia attack 0.83 + Compostela defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Compostela scores more

35%

level

32%

Numancia scores more

33%

Compostela at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Compostela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

Asier Benito

61'

Gabri Palmás← Saro Seoane

61'

Samu Rodríguez← J. Barros

67'

Tony Gabarre← Asier Benito

69'

M. Sanhaji

72'

Roberto Baleato← Pablo Antas

72'

Axel Lim← Miky Villar

81'

José Fran← Jesús Tamayo

90+3'

Andrés Mohedano← Antonio Cotán

90+3'

Óscar De Frutos← Menudo

90'

David Soto

Compostela

Numancia

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Yago Iglesias

61'▲Gabri Palmás←▼Saro Seoane

61'▲Samu Rodríguez←▼J. Barros

72'▲Roberto Baleato←▼Pablo Antas

72'▲Axel Lim←▼Miky Villar

Compostela substitutes

PalmásRodríguezBaleatoLimReyVespriniGonzálezPereira

Manager: Álex Huerta

67'▲Tony Gabarre←▼Asier Benito

81'▲José Fran←▼Jesús Tamayo

90+3'▲Andrés Mohedano←▼Antonio Cotán

90+3'▲Óscar De Frutos←▼Menudo

Numancia substitutes

GabarreFranMohedanoFrutosEmeterioMuñozCorralJara

Match Recap: Compostela vs Numancia

Numancia beat Compostela 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 3, 2021.

Goals: Asier Benito (44'), M. Sanhaji (69'), David Soto (90').

The match was played at Estadio Multiusos de San Lázaro in Santiago de Compostela.

Compostela vs Numancia — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Compostela vs Numancia