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Complutense vs Colonia Moscardó — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Complutense
Complutense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Colonia Moscardó
Colonia Moscardó
2/12/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 28Campo de Fútbol Recinto Ferial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Complutense50%
×Draw27%
Colonia Moscardó23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Complutense
1.44
Colonia Moscardó
0.89

Complutense creates 62% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 37 away

creates per match

Complutense
1.17
Colonia Moscardó
0.70

allows per match

Complutense
1.08
Colonia Moscardó
1.70

finishing

Complutense+0.00on par
Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Complutense ↓

Colonia Moscardó →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Complutense or draw
77%
Complutense or Colonia Moscardó
73%
Draw or Colonia Moscardó
50%

Winning margin

Complutense wins by 2+
25%
Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Complutense 1+ goals
76%
Complutense 2+ goals
42%
Complutense 3+ goals
18%
Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals
59%
Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals
22%
Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Complutense (draw refunded)
68%
Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Complutense at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

Colonia Moscardó away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Complutense attack 1.17 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.44

Colonia Moscardó attack 0.70 + Complutense defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Complutense scores more
50%
level
27%
Colonia Moscardó scores more
23%

Complutense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Complutense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Complutense vs Colonia Moscardó

Complutense beat Colonia Moscardó 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Recinto Ferial in Alcalá de Henares.