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Colonia Moscardó vs Complutense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Colonia Moscardó
Colonia Moscardó
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Complutense
Complutense
10/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 7Estadio Román Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Colonia Moscardó41%
×Draw28%
Complutense32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colonia Moscardó
1.28
Complutense
1.10

Colonia Moscardó creates 16% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 36 away

creates per match

Colonia Moscardó
1.14
Complutense
0.47

allows per match

Colonia Moscardó
1.73
Complutense
1.42

finishing

Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par
Complutense+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colonia Moscardó ↓

Complutense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Colonia Moscardó or draw
68%
Colonia Moscardó or Complutense
72%
Draw or Complutense
59%

Winning margin

Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+
18%
Complutense wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals
72%
Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals
37%
Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals
14%
Complutense 1+ goals
67%
Complutense 2+ goals
30%
Complutense 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)
56%
Complutense (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colonia Moscardó at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 37 matches

Complutense away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colonia Moscardó attack 1.14 + Complutense defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.28

Complutense attack 0.47 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Colonia Moscardó scores more
41%
level
28%
Complutense scores more
32%

Colonia Moscardó at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Colonia Moscardó will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colonia Moscardó vs Complutense

Complutense beat Colonia Moscardó 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Román Valero in Madrid.