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Comerciantes vs Carlos Stein — Segunda División 2018

Comerciantes
Comerciantes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
7/30/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 17Estadio Max Augustín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Comerciantes70%
×Draw18%
Carlos Stein12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comerciantes
2.34
Carlos Stein
0.85

Comerciantes creates 175% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 34 away

creates per match

Comerciantes
1.89
Carlos Stein
1.09

allows per match

Comerciantes
0.61
Carlos Stein
2.79

finishing

Comerciantes+0.00on par
Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes ↓

Carlos Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Comerciantes or draw
88%
Comerciantes or Carlos Stein
82%
Draw or Carlos Stein
30%

Winning margin

Comerciantes wins by 2+
47%
Carlos Stein wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Comerciantes 1+ goals
90%
Comerciantes 2+ goals
67%
Comerciantes 3+ goals
41%
Carlos Stein 1+ goals
57%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
21%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes (draw refunded)
85%
Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.61 · 44 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes attack 1.89 + Carlos Stein defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.34

Carlos Stein attack 1.09 + Comerciantes defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Comerciantes scores more
70%
level
18%
Carlos Stein scores more
12%

Comerciantes at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Comerciantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Comerciantes 1–1 Carlos Stein

Comerciantes and Carlos Stein drew 1-1 in Segunda División on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Max Augustín in Iquitos.