Carlos Stein 1–2 Comerciantes: Result & Stats

Carlos Stein

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Comerciantes

5/10/2023

Segunda División · Round 4Estadio Carlos Samamé Cáceres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Carlos Stein29%

×Draw25%

Comerciantes46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carlos SteinExpected goals in this matchComerciantes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.53

Carlos Stein

1.16

Comerciantes

1.53

Comerciantes creates 32% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 44 away

1.12

creates per match

0.82

2.24

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Carlos Stein

1.12

Comerciantes

0.82

allows per match

Carlos Stein

2.24

Comerciantes

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Comerciantes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

Comerciantes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw

54%

Carlos Stein or Comerciantes

75%

Draw or Comerciantes

71%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+

12%

Comerciantes wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals

69%

Carlos Stein 2+ goals

32%

Carlos Stein 3+ goals

11%

Comerciantes 1+ goals

78%

Comerciantes 2+ goals

45%

Comerciantes 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)

39%

Comerciantes (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.24 · 33 matches

Comerciantes away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.12 + Comerciantes defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Comerciantes attack 0.82 + Carlos Stein defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Carlos Stein scores more

29%

level

25%

Comerciantes scores more

46%

Comerciantes at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Comerciantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff