Comerciantes 3–1 Alianza Universidad

Comerciantes

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Alianza Universidad

G. Cenepo 85'

J. Zambrano 53', 35'

G. Iraola 83'

9/21/2023

Segunda División · Round 25Estadio Max Augustín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Comerciantes49%

×Draw25%

Alianza Universidad26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ComerciantesExpected goals in this matchAlianza Universidad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.10

Comerciantes

1.61

Alianza Universidad

1.10

Comerciantes creates 46% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 43 away

1.89

creates per match

1.60

0.61

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Comerciantes

1.89

Alianza Universidad

1.60

allows per match

Comerciantes

0.61

Alianza Universidad

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Comerciantes+0.00on par

Alianza Universidad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes ↓

Alianza Universidad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Comerciantes or draw

74%

Comerciantes or Alianza Universidad

75%

Draw or Alianza Universidad

51%

Winning margin

Comerciantes wins by 2+

26%

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Comerciantes 1+ goals

80%

Comerciantes 2+ goals

48%

Comerciantes 3+ goals

22%

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

67%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

30%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes (draw refunded)

65%

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.61 · 44 matches

Alianza Universidad away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes attack 1.89 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.61

Alianza Universidad attack 1.60 + Comerciantes defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Comerciantes scores more

49%

level

25%

Alianza Universidad scores more

26%

Comerciantes at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Comerciantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

J. Zambrano

43'

P. Vela← J. Valdeblanquez

46'

J. Domínguez← R. Guevara

53'

56'

56'

61'

72'

72'

Y. Hoyos← J. Zambrano

73'

83'

G. Iraola

85'

G. Cenepo

Comerciantes

Alianza

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Zambrano

Manager: M. Salazar

43'▲P. Vela←▼J. Valdeblanquez

46'▲J. Domínguez←▼R. Guevara

61'▲G. Cenepo←▼S. Silva

72'▲G. Correa←▼M. Cortés

72'▲Y. Hoyos←▼J. Zambrano

Comerciantes substitutes

VelaDomínguezCenepoCorreaHoyosSánchezCorrea

Manager: P. Cominges

56'▲J. Gonzáles←▼R. Tito

56'▲L. Pajoy←▼P. Cruzado

Alianza Universidad substitutes

GonzálesPajoyLauraFigueroaMontenegroSchmidtVásquez