Alianza Universidad 1–0 Comerciantes

Alianza Universidad

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Comerciantes

C. Monsalvo 75'

6/26/2023

Segunda División · Round 12Estadio Heraclio Tapia León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Alianza Universidad55%

×Draw25%

Comerciantes20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza UniversidadExpected goals in this matchComerciantes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.90

Alianza Universidad

1.65

Comerciantes

0.90

Alianza Universidad creates 83% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 45 away

2.11

creates per match

0.82

0.98

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Alianza Universidad

2.11

Comerciantes

0.82

allows per match

Alianza Universidad

0.98

Comerciantes

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Universidad+0.00on par

Comerciantes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Universidad ↓

Comerciantes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Alianza Universidad or draw

80%

Alianza Universidad or Comerciantes

75%

Draw or Comerciantes

45%

Winning margin

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

30%

Comerciantes wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

81%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

49%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

23%

Comerciantes 1+ goals

59%

Comerciantes 2+ goals

23%

Comerciantes 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

73%

Comerciantes (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Universidad at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.98 · 44 matches

Comerciantes away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Universidad attack 2.11 + Comerciantes defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.65

Comerciantes attack 0.82 + Alianza Universidad defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Alianza Universidad scores more

55%

level

25%

Comerciantes scores more

20%

Alianza Universidad at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Alianza Universidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

P. Reategui

34'

R. Campodonico

62'

C. Monsalvo← P. Cruzado

67'

M. Cortes Armelo

73'

J. Zambrano← R. Correa

73'

R. Guevara← D. Cossío

74'

I. Plasencia← R. Campodónico

75'

78'

85'

86'

86'

P. Vela← J. Domínguez

89'

L. Romero

90+1'

R. Tapia← D. Carabaño

Alianza

Comerciantes

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Cominges

62'▲C. Monsalvo←▼P. Cruzado

74'▲I. Plasencia←▼R. Campodónico

90+1'▲R. Tapia←▼D. Carabaño

Alianza Universidad substitutes

MonsalvoPlasenciaTapiaLauraEncinasPrietoRamírez

Manager: M. Salazar

73'▲J. Zambrano←▼R. Correa

73'▲R. Guevara←▼D. Cossío

78'▲B. Torres←▼M. Cortés

86'▲G. Correa←▼Y. Hoyos

86'▲P. Vela←▼J. Domínguez

Comerciantes substitutes

ZambranoGuevaraTorresCorreaVelaValdeblanquezSánchez

Match Recap: Alianza Universidad vs Comerciantes

Alianza Universidad beat Comerciantes 1-0 in Segunda División on June 26, 2023.

Goals: C. Monsalvo (75').

The match was played at Estadio Heraclio Tapia León in Huánuco.

Alianza Universidad vs Comerciantes — Segunda División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Alianza Universidad vs Comerciantes