Comerciantes 2–0 Academia Cantolao: Result & Stats

Comerciantes

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Academia Cantolao

R. Chipao 87'

J. Vasquez 15'

4/13/2025

Segunda División · Round 2Estadio Max Augustín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Comerciantes60%

×Draw24%

Academia Cantolao16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ComerciantesExpected goals in this matchAcademia Cantolao

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.75

Comerciantes

1.71

Academia Cantolao

0.75

Comerciantes creates 128% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 28 away

1.89

creates per match

0.89

0.61

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Comerciantes

1.89

Academia Cantolao

0.89

allows per match

Comerciantes

0.61

Academia Cantolao

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Comerciantes+0.00on par

Academia Cantolao+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes ↓

Academia Cantolao →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Comerciantes or draw

84%

Comerciantes or Academia Cantolao

76%

Draw or Academia Cantolao

40%

Winning margin

Comerciantes wins by 2+

34%

Academia Cantolao wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Comerciantes 1+ goals

82%

Comerciantes 2+ goals

51%

Comerciantes 3+ goals

24%

Academia Cantolao 1+ goals

53%

Academia Cantolao 2+ goals

17%

Academia Cantolao 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes (draw refunded)

79%

Academia Cantolao (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.61 · 44 matches

Academia Cantolao away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes attack 1.89 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.71

Academia Cantolao attack 0.89 + Comerciantes defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Comerciantes scores more

60%

level

24%

Academia Cantolao scores more

16%

Comerciantes at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Comerciantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

J. Vasquez

20'

37'

40'

56'

56'

57'

57'

61'

62'

81'

B. Aburto← J. Navarro

87'

R. Chipao

88'

S. Taype← V. Delgado

90'

Comerciantes

Academia

1

30

25

3

20

24

▼

Delgado

8

Lara

23

▼

Rojas

15

▼

7

9

1

31

▼

Navarro

5

Pinedo

33

Valdeblan

7

▼

Hurtado

32

Flores

19

Dominguez

28

⚽

Chipao

16

Valverde

8

▼

Flores

18

⚽

Vasquez

Manager: J. Bazalar

57'▲P. Vela←▼C. Hurtado

57'▲C. Ruiz←▼L. Flores

81'▲B. Aburto←▼J. Navarro

Comerciantes substitutes

13Garcia4Arrue17Vela30Tuesta22Aburto15Gadea14Ruiz34Bosmediano6Arevalo

Manager: J. Mariño

56'▲R. Ardiles←▼F. Rojas

56'▲G. Oliva←▼J. Cordova

88'▲S. Taype←▼V. Delgado

Academia Cantolao substitutes

12Bettocchi10Ardiles22Pacheco2Diego32Taype11Oliva