Academia Cantolao 1–1 Comerciantes: Result & Stats

Academia Cantolao

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Comerciantes

Y. Lopez 26'

M. Lemos 53' (pen)

5/31/2025

Segunda División · Round 9Estadio Miguel Grau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Academia Cantolao38%

×Draw29%

Comerciantes33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Academia CantolaoExpected goals in this matchComerciantes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.06

Academia Cantolao

1.15

Comerciantes

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

1.10

creates per match

0.82

1.30

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Academia Cantolao

1.10

Comerciantes

0.82

allows per match

Academia Cantolao

1.30

Comerciantes

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academia Cantolao+0.00on par

Comerciantes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academia Cantolao ↓

Comerciantes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Academia Cantolao or draw

67%

Academia Cantolao or Comerciantes

71%

Draw or Comerciantes

62%

Winning margin

Academia Cantolao wins by 2+

16%

Comerciantes wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Academia Cantolao 1+ goals

68%

Academia Cantolao 2+ goals

32%

Academia Cantolao 3+ goals

11%

Comerciantes 1+ goals

65%

Comerciantes 2+ goals

29%

Comerciantes 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Academia Cantolao (draw refunded)

53%

Comerciantes (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academia Cantolao at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Comerciantes away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academia Cantolao attack 1.10 + Comerciantes defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Comerciantes attack 0.82 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Academia Cantolao scores more

38%

level

29%

Comerciantes scores more

33%

Academia Cantolao at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Academia Cantolao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Y. Lopez

42'

M. Valverde

42'

J. Gomez

46'

Y. Mena← J. Bosmediano

46'

M. Lemos← C. Hurtado

52'

R. Valenzuela

53'

M. LemosPenalty

61'

66'

72'

76'

77'

D. Cabello← L. Herrera

83'

R. Valenzuela

83'

R. Valenzuela

85'

J. Dominguez

88'

P. Ferreira← M. Valverde

88'

J. Vasquez← J. Zambrano

90+6'

L. Falcon← J. Cordova

90+3'

P. Vela← J. Navarro

Academia

Comerciantes

13

Garcia

34

▼

Bosmedian

31

▼

Navarro

33

Valdeblan

32

Flores

7

▼

5

19

28

16

▼

Valverde

9

▼

Zambrano

1

Razzeto

30

▼

25

3

20

24

8

4

5

▼

Herrera

7

⚽

Lopez

15

▼

Cordova

Manager: J. Mariño

66'▲J. Jimenez←▼C. Ruiz

77'▲D. Cabello←▼L. Herrera

90+6'▲L. Falcon←▼J. Cordova

Academia Cantolao substitutes

12Bettocchi80Falcon22Pacheco13Crisostomo27Gonzales23Rojas10Ardiles18Jimenez34Cabello

Manager: J. Bazalar

46'▲Y. Mena←▼J. Bosmediano

46'▲M. Lemos←▼C. Hurtado

88'▲P. Ferreira←▼M. Valverde

88'▲J. Vasquez←▼J. Zambrano

90+3'▲P. Vela←▼J. Navarro

Comerciantes substitutes

29Perez22Aburto17Vela15Gadea27Ferreira11Mena10Lemos18Vasquez30Tuesta

Match Recap: Academia Cantolao vs Comerciantes

Academia Cantolao and Comerciantes drew 1-1 in Segunda División on May 31, 2025.

Goals: Y. Lopez (26'), M. Lemos (53' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau in Callao.

Academia Cantolao vs Comerciantes — Segunda División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Academia Cantolao vs Comerciantes