Comerciantes Unidos 1–1 Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Comerciantes Unidos

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

M. Sen 83' (pen)

F. Torres 47'

2/22/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 3Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos53%

×Draw25%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Comerciantes UnidosExpected goals in this matchClub Deportivo Los Chankas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.96

Comerciantes Unidos

1.65

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.96

Comerciantes Unidos creates 72% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

1.15

creates per match

0.85

1.07

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos

1.15

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.85

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos

1.07

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

2.14

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos-0.15scores less

Club Deportivo Los Chankas-0.43scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

Club Deportivo Los Chankas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw

78%

Comerciantes Unidos or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

75%

Draw or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

47%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

29%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

81%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

49%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

23%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

62%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

25%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

71%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.07 · 6 matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.14 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.15 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.65

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 0.85 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

53%

level

25%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

22%

Comerciantes Unidos at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Comerciantes Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

F. Saravia

Club Deportivo Los Chankas · G

7.5

Match Events

46'

R. Sandoval← L. Escalante

47'

F. Torres↳ J. Manzaneda

57'

59'

60'

64'

71'

F. Fernandez← F. Torres

74'

A. Lecaros← J. Vega

77'

J. Tunqui← A. Quiroz

77'

I. Camargo← P. Bueno

83'

M. SenPenalty

88'

C. Pimienta← S. Torres

88'

L. Mifflin← J. Guivin Tanta

90+2'

Matias Sen

90+2'

Sebastián Gonzales Zela

90+7'

Jose Antonio Parodi

90+2'

Hector González

90+2'

Franco Saravia

90'

S. Gonzales← M. P. Carpio Ferro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ComerciantesClub

Overview

55%Possession45%

14Total Shots11

6Corners3

12Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots11

3On Target4

9Off Target6

2Blocked1

7Inside Box3

7Outside Box8

Passing

55%Possession45%

352Total Passes299

287Accurate Passes242

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls14

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides6