Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2–0 Comerciantes Unidos

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Comerciantes Unidos

J. Manzaneda 90+6'

C. López 64'

7/20/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Los Chankas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas59%

×Draw22%

Comerciantes Unidos19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Deportivo Los ChankasExpected goals in this matchComerciantes Unidos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.94

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.86

Comerciantes Unidos

0.94

Club Deportivo Los Chankas creates 98% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 63 away

1.74

creates per match

0.89

0.98

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.74

Comerciantes Unidos

0.89

allows per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.98

Comerciantes Unidos

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par

Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Deportivo Los Chankas ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw

81%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or Comerciantes Unidos

78%

Draw or Comerciantes Unidos

41%

Winning margin

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

34%

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

84%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

55%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

28%

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

61%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

24%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

76%

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.98 · 43 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.98 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 1.74 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.86

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.89 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

59%

level

22%

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

19%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Club Deportivo Los Chankas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Manzaneda

Club Deportivo Los Chankas · M

7.9

Match Events

13'

Cristian Mejia

18'

Piero Magallanes

39'

Matias Sen

46'

O. Takeuchi← A. Casquete

46'

Á. Ledesma← A. Murialdo

53'

55'

56'

62'

64'

68'

68'

F. Medina← K. Barrios

72'

S. Gonzales← M. Sen

75'

A. Robles← C. Mejía

78'

A. Quintana← A. Chávez

78'

E. Mogollón← M. Ruidías

87'

Jose Antonio Parodi

90+3'

Italo Regalado

90+2'

Jose Eduardo Caballero

90+6'

J. Manzaneda↳ D. Carabaño

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubComerciantes

Overview

62%Possession38%

14Total Shots10

6Corners3

9Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots10

5On Target3

7Off Target6

2Blocked1

7Inside Box6

7Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

385Total Passes235

309Accurate Passes170

80%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls17

2Yellow Cards6

3Offsides1