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Comerciantes Unidos vs Alfonso Ugarte Puno — Segunda División 2018

Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
4/30/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 3Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos60%
×Draw21%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Comerciantes Unidos
2.07
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
1.08

Comerciantes Unidos creates 92% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 25 away

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos
1.98
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
0.96

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos
1.21
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
2.16

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par
Alfonso Ugarte Puno+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

Alfonso Ugarte Puno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw
81%
Comerciantes Unidos or Alfonso Ugarte Puno
79%
Draw or Alfonso Ugarte Puno
40%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+
37%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals
87%
Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals
61%
Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals
34%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 1+ goals
66%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2+ goals
29%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)
76%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.21 · 52 matches

Alfonso Ugarte Puno away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.98 + Alfonso Ugarte Puno defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.07

Alfonso Ugarte Puno attack 0.96 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more
60%
level
21%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno scores more
19%

Comerciantes Unidos at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Comerciantes Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Comerciantes Unidos 2–1 Alfonso Ugarte Puno

Comerciantes Unidos beat Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2-1 in Segunda División on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra in Cutervo.