Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2–0 Comerciantes Unidos

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Comerciantes Unidos

7/3/2022

Segunda División · Clausura - 1Estadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Alfonso Ugarte Puno54%

×Draw23%

Comerciantes Unidos22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alfonso Ugarte PunoExpected goals in this matchComerciantes Unidos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.04

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

1.77

Comerciantes Unidos

1.04

Alfonso Ugarte Puno creates 70% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 53 away

1.84

creates per match

1.17

0.92

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

1.84

Comerciantes Unidos

1.17

allows per match

Alfonso Ugarte Puno

0.92

Comerciantes Unidos

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alfonso Ugarte Puno+0.00on par

Comerciantes Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfonso Ugarte Puno ↓

Comerciantes Unidos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Alfonso Ugarte Puno or draw

78%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno or Comerciantes Unidos

77%

Draw or Comerciantes Unidos

46%

Winning margin

Alfonso Ugarte Puno wins by 2+

30%

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 1+ goals

83%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2+ goals

53%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno 3+ goals

26%

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

65%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

28%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Alfonso Ugarte Puno (draw refunded)

71%

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfonso Ugarte Puno at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfonso Ugarte Puno attack 1.84 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.77

Comerciantes Unidos attack 1.17 + Alfonso Ugarte Puno defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Alfonso Ugarte Puno scores more

54%

level

23%

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

22%

Alfonso Ugarte Puno at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Alfonso Ugarte Puno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff