Colunga 1–0 Barcia: Result & Stats

Colunga

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barcia

B. Kovalenko 44'

12/17/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Estadio Santianes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Colunga54%

×Draw24%

Barcia22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColungaExpected goals in this matchBarcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.96

Colunga

1.66

Barcia

0.96

Colunga creates 73% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 17 away

1.19

creates per match

0.65

1.27

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Colunga

1.19

Barcia

0.65

allows per match

Colunga

1.27

Barcia

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colunga+0.00on par

Barcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colunga ↓

Barcia →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Colunga or draw

78%

Colunga or Barcia

76%

Draw or Barcia

46%

Winning margin

Colunga wins by 2+

29%

Barcia wins by 2+

Team goals

Colunga 1+ goals

81%

Colunga 2+ goals

49%

Colunga 3+ goals

23%

Barcia 1+ goals

62%

Barcia 2+ goals

25%

Barcia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Colunga (draw refunded)

71%

Barcia (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Colunga at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

Barcia away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Colunga attack 1.19 + Barcia defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.66

Barcia attack 0.65 + Colunga defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Colunga scores more

54%

level

24%

Barcia scores more

22%

Colunga at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Colunga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

B. Kovalenko

60'

Adrián← Daniel Palacio

60'

Marcos Castillo← Manu Ameijide

65'

Iván Salas← David Moreno

75'

Diego Nuño← Daniel Corgo

Colunga

Barcia

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Pablo Pantiga

65'▲Iván Salas←▼David Moreno

75'▲Diego Nuño←▼Daniel Corgo

Colunga substitutes

SalasNuño

Manager: Pablo Barbón

60'▲Adrián←▼Daniel Palacio

60'▲Marcos Castillo←▼Manu Ameijide

Barcia substitutes

AdriánCastillo

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Colunga 1–0 Barcia

Colunga beat Barcia 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 17, 2023.

Goals: B. Kovalenko (44').

The match was played at Estadio Santianes in Colunga.

Colunga vs Barcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Colunga 1–0 Barcia