Barcia 3–4 Colunga: Result & Stats

Barcia

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Colunga

Pablo Colunga 80'

Gabriel Ajuchi 65', 59'

Robert Martínez 90+4', 90+2'

Marcos Arango 86'

F. Richi 28'

4/28/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Campo de fútbol San Sebastián

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Barcia23%

×Draw23%

Colunga54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarciaExpected goals in this matchColunga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.84

Barcia

1.11

Colunga

1.84

Colunga creates 66% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 113 away

0.88

creates per match

1.04

2.65

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Barcia

0.88

Colunga

1.04

allows per match

Barcia

2.65

Colunga

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcia+0.00on par

Colunga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcia ↓

Colunga →

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–43%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Barcia or draw

46%

Barcia or Colunga

77%

Draw or Colunga

77%

Winning margin

Barcia wins by 2+

Colunga wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Barcia 1+ goals

67%

Barcia 2+ goals

30%

Barcia 3+ goals

10%

Colunga 1+ goals

84%

Colunga 2+ goals

55%

Colunga 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Barcia (draw refunded)

30%

Colunga (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Barcia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Colunga away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Barcia attack 0.88 + Colunga defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.11

Colunga attack 1.04 + Barcia defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Barcia scores more

23%

level

23%

Colunga scores more

54%

Colunga at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Colunga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

F. Richi

46'

Erasmo← Simon Szczepanik

59'

Gabriel Ajuchi

65'

Pablo Colunga← Pelayo Pumares

65'

Carlos Barcia← Diego Iza

65'

Nelson Cano← Álvaro Ferreira

65'

Gabriel Ajuchi

71'

B. Kovalenko← David Moreno

80'

Pablo Colunga

86'

Marcos Arango

89'

Cristian Bouso← Diego Gulin

90'

Adrián← Gabriel Ajuchi

90'

M. Batista← W. Awusi

90+2'

Robert Martínez

90+4'

Robert Martínez

Barcia

Colunga

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Ajuchi

▼

Szczepani

González

Manager: Pablo Barbón

46'▲Erasmo←▼Simon Szczepanik

65'▲Pablo Colunga←▼Pelayo Pumares

89'▲Cristian Bouso←▼Diego Gulin

90'▲Adrián←▼Gabriel Ajuchi

Barcia substitutes

ErasmoColungaBousoAdrián

Manager: Pablo Pantiga

65'▲Carlos Barcia←▼Diego Iza

65'▲Nelson Cano←▼Álvaro Ferreira

71'▲B. Kovalenko←▼David Moreno

90'▲M. Batista←▼W. Awusi

Colunga substitutes

BarciaCanoKovalenkoBatista

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Barcia 3–4 Colunga

Colunga beat Barcia 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 28, 2024.

Goals: F. Richi (28'), Gabriel Ajuchi (59', 65'), Pablo Colunga (80'), Marcos Arango (86'), Robert Martínez (90+2', 90+4').

The match was played at Campo de fútbol San Sebastián in Barcia.

Barcia vs Colunga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Barcia 3–4 Colunga