Columbus Crew 1–1 Portland Timbers: Result & Stats

Columbus Crew

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Portland Timbers

K. Molino 36'

S. Moreno 90+5'

9/18/2022

Major League Soccer · Round 45Lower.com Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Columbus Crew52%

×Draw23%

Portland Timbers24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Columbus CrewExpected goals in this matchPortland Timbers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.13

Columbus Crew

1.77

Portland Timbers

1.13

Columbus Crew creates 57% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 37 away

1.69

creates per match

1.18

1.07

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Columbus Crew

1.69

Portland Timbers

1.18

allows per match

Columbus Crew

1.07

Portland Timbers

1.85

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Columbus Crew+0.23scores more

Portland Timbers+0.06on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Columbus Crew ↓

Portland Timbers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Columbus Crew or draw

76%

Columbus Crew or Portland Timbers

77%

Draw or Portland Timbers

48%

Winning margin

Columbus Crew wins by 2+

29%

Portland Timbers wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Columbus Crew 1+ goals

83%

Columbus Crew 2+ goals

53%

Columbus Crew 3+ goals

26%

Portland Timbers 1+ goals

68%

Portland Timbers 2+ goals

31%

Portland Timbers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Columbus Crew (draw refunded)

68%

Portland Timbers (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Columbus Crew at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.07 · 48 matches

Portland Timbers away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.85 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Columbus Crew attack 1.69 + Portland Timbers defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.77

Portland Timbers attack 1.18 + Columbus Crew defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Columbus Crew scores more

52%

level

23%

Portland Timbers scores more

24%

Columbus Crew at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Columbus Crew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

S. Moreno

Portland Timbers · F

7.9

Match Events

10'

Aidan Morris

25'

Yimmi Chará

36'

K. Molino↳ L. Zelarayán

45'

66'

68'

68'

68'

J. Niezgoda← S. Blanco

71'

Santiago Moreno

82'

C. Paredes← E. Williamson

82'

J. Mosquera← L. Mabiala

82'

M. Loría← Y. Chara

83'

W. Sands← Pedro Santos

84'

Y. Yeboah← K. Molino

89'

Nathan Fogaça← D. Chara

90+3'

Cucho Hernández

90+4'

Artur← A. Morris

90+5'

S. Moreno↳ B. Tuiloma

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColumbusPortland

Overview

53%Possession47%

15Total Shots9

3Corners8

7Fouls21

Shots

15Total Shots9

4On Target3

7Off Target4

4Blocked2

5Inside Box7

10Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

388Total Passes344

313Accurate Passes261

81%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls21

3Yellow Cards4

5Offsides0