Columbus Crew 1–3 Portland Timbers: Result & Stats

Columbus Crew

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Portland Timbers

Pedro Santos 69'

Jorge Moreira 90'

Jeremy Ebobisse 35'

Larrys Mabiala 31'

4/20/2019

Major League Soccer · Round 9MAPFRE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

Columbus Crew52%

×Draw23%

Portland Timbers24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Columbus CrewExpected goals in this matchPortland Timbers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.13

Columbus Crew

1.77

Portland Timbers

1.13

Columbus Crew creates 57% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 37 away

1.69

creates per match

1.18

1.07

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Columbus Crew

1.69

Portland Timbers

1.18

allows per match

Columbus Crew

1.07

Portland Timbers

1.85

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Columbus Crew+0.23scores more

Portland Timbers+0.06on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Columbus Crew ↓

Portland Timbers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Columbus Crew or draw

76%

Columbus Crew or Portland Timbers

77%

Draw or Portland Timbers

48%

Winning margin

Columbus Crew wins by 2+

29%

Portland Timbers wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Columbus Crew 1+ goals

83%

Columbus Crew 2+ goals

53%

Columbus Crew 3+ goals

26%

Portland Timbers 1+ goals

68%

Portland Timbers 2+ goals

31%

Portland Timbers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Columbus Crew (draw refunded)

68%

Portland Timbers (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Columbus Crew at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.07 · 48 matches

Portland Timbers away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.85 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Columbus Crew attack 1.69 + Portland Timbers defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.77

Portland Timbers attack 1.18 + Columbus Crew defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Columbus Crew scores more

52%

level

23%

Portland Timbers scores more

24%

Columbus Crew at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Columbus Crew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

Larrys Mabiala

Portland Timbers · D

7.8

Match Events

25'

Zarek Valentin

31'

Larrys Mabiala↳ Diego Valeri

35'

Jeremy Ebobisse↳ Sebastian Blanco

60'

Justin Meram← Robinho

69'

Pedro Santos

76'

Tomás Conechny← Diego Valeri

78'

Tomás Conechny

83'

Eduardo Sosa← Artur

85'

Lucas Melano← Jeremy Ebobisse

85'

Julio Cascante← Andres Flores

88'

Jerome Williams← Héctor Jimenez

89'

Sebastian Blanco

90'

Jorge Moreira↳ Cristhian Paredes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColumbusPortland

Overview

57%Possession43%

17Total Shots15

7Corners2

9Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots15

5On Target5

8Off Target8

4Blocked2

11Inside Box9

6Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

562Total Passes419

481Accurate Passes348

86%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls11

0Yellow Cards3