Columbus Crew 2–1 Los Angeles FC: Result & Stats

Columbus Crew

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Los Angeles FC

3/12/2025

CONCACAF Champions League · Round of 16Lower.com Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Columbus Crew43%

×Draw25%

Los Angeles FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Columbus CrewExpected goals in this matchLos Angeles FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.31

Columbus Crew

1.56

Los Angeles FC

1.31

Columbus Crew creates 19% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

1.50

creates per match

1.62

1.00

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Columbus Crew

1.50

Los Angeles FC

1.62

allows per match

Columbus Crew

1.00

Los Angeles FC

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Columbus Crew+0.00on par

Los Angeles FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Columbus Crew ↓

Los Angeles FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Columbus Crew or draw

68%

Columbus Crew or Los Angeles FC

75%

Draw or Los Angeles FC

57%

Winning margin

Columbus Crew wins by 2+

22%

Los Angeles FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Columbus Crew 1+ goals

79%

Columbus Crew 2+ goals

46%

Columbus Crew 3+ goals

21%

Los Angeles FC 1+ goals

73%

Los Angeles FC 2+ goals

38%

Los Angeles FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Columbus Crew (draw refunded)

57%

Los Angeles FC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Columbus Crew at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Los Angeles FC away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Columbus Crew attack 1.50 + Los Angeles FC defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.56

Los Angeles FC attack 1.62 + Columbus Crew defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Columbus Crew scores more

43%

level

25%

Los Angeles FC scores more

32%

Columbus Crew at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Columbus Crew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff