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Columbus Crew vs Los Angeles FC — Major League Soccer 2026

Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC
5/22/2022Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 18Lower.com Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Columbus Crew39%
×Draw26%
Los Angeles FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Columbus Crew
1.41
Los Angeles FC
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

creates per match

Columbus Crew
1.50
Los Angeles FC
1.59

allows per match

Columbus Crew
1.05
Los Angeles FC
1.31

finishing

Columbus Crew+0.25scores more
Los Angeles FC+0.20scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Columbus Crew ↓

Los Angeles FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Columbus Crew or draw
65%
Columbus Crew or Los Angeles FC
74%
Draw or Los Angeles FC
61%

Winning margin

Columbus Crew wins by 2+
18%
Los Angeles FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Columbus Crew 1+ goals
76%
Columbus Crew 2+ goals
41%
Columbus Crew 3+ goals
17%
Los Angeles FC 1+ goals
73%
Los Angeles FC 2+ goals
38%
Los Angeles FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Columbus Crew (draw refunded)
53%
Los Angeles FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Columbus Crew at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.05 · 16 matches

Los Angeles FC away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Columbus Crew attack 1.50 + Los Angeles FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.41

Los Angeles FC attack 1.59 + Columbus Crew defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Columbus Crew scores more
39%
level
26%
Los Angeles FC scores more
35%

Columbus Crew at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Columbus Crew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: Columbus Crew 0–2 Los Angeles FC

Los Angeles FC beat Columbus Crew 2-0 in Major League Soccer on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Lower.com Field in Columbus, Ohio.