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Colorado Springs vs San Antonio — USL Championship 2026

Colorado Springs
Colorado Springs
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Antonio
San Antonio
10/5/2025USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 33Weidner Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Colorado Springs44%
×Draw26%
San Antonio30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Springs
1.48
San Antonio
1.19

Colorado Springs creates 24% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 134 away

creates per match

Colorado Springs
1.52
San Antonio
1.28

allows per match

Colorado Springs
1.09
San Antonio
1.44

finishing

Colorado Springs+0.00on par
San Antonio+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Springs ↓

San Antonio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Colorado Springs or draw
70%
Colorado Springs or San Antonio
74%
Draw or San Antonio
56%

Winning margin

Colorado Springs wins by 2+
21%
San Antonio wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Colorado Springs 1+ goals
77%
Colorado Springs 2+ goals
43%
Colorado Springs 3+ goals
19%
San Antonio 1+ goals
70%
San Antonio 2+ goals
33%
San Antonio 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Colorado Springs (draw refunded)
59%
San Antonio (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Springs at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.09 · 136 matches

San Antonio away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Springs attack 1.52 + San Antonio defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.48

San Antonio attack 1.28 + Colorado Springs defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Colorado Springs scores more
44%
level
26%
San Antonio scores more
30%

Colorado Springs at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Colorado Springs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colorado Springs vs San Antonio

Colorado Springs beat San Antonio 1-0 in USL Championship on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Weidner Field.