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Colorado Springs vs San Antonio — USL League One Cup 2024

Colorado Springs
Colorado Springs
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
San Antonio
San Antonio
6/26/2025USL League One CupUSL League One Cup · Group Stage - 5Weidner Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Colorado Springs43%
×Draw27%
San Antonio31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado Springs
1.38
San Antonio
1.13

Colorado Springs creates 22% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Colorado Springs
2.50
San Antonio
1.50

allows per match

Colorado Springs
0.75
San Antonio
0.25

finishing

Colorado Springs+0.00on par
San Antonio+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Springs ↓

San Antonio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Colorado Springs or draw
69%
Colorado Springs or San Antonio
73%
Draw or San Antonio
57%

Winning margin

Colorado Springs wins by 2+
20%
San Antonio wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Colorado Springs 1+ goals
75%
Colorado Springs 2+ goals
40%
Colorado Springs 3+ goals
16%
San Antonio 1+ goals
68%
San Antonio 2+ goals
31%
San Antonio 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Colorado Springs (draw refunded)
58%
San Antonio (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Springs at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

San Antonio away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Springs attack 2.50 + San Antonio defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

San Antonio attack 1.50 + Colorado Springs defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Colorado Springs scores more
43%
level
27%
San Antonio scores more
31%

Colorado Springs at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Colorado Springs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League One Cup: Colorado Springs 0–2 San Antonio

San Antonio beat Colorado Springs 2-0 in USL League One Cup on June 26, 2025.

The match was played at Weidner Field in Colorado Springs.