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Colorado ISA vs Boulder County United — USL League Two 2018

Colorado ISA
Colorado ISA
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Boulder County United
Boulder County United
5/27/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 3Englewood High School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Colorado ISA16%
×Draw17%
Boulder County United67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colorado ISA
1.18
Boulder County United
2.59

Boulder County United creates 119% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 5 away

creates per match

Colorado ISA
0.76
Boulder County United
1.80

allows per match

Colorado ISA
3.38
Boulder County United
1.60

finishing

Colorado ISA+0.00on par
Boulder County United+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado ISA ↓

Boulder County United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Colorado ISA or draw
33%
Colorado ISA or Boulder County United
83%
Draw or Boulder County United
84%

Winning margin

Colorado ISA wins by 2+
6%
Boulder County United wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Colorado ISA 1+ goals
69%
Colorado ISA 2+ goals
33%
Colorado ISA 3+ goals
12%
Boulder County United 1+ goals
92%
Boulder County United 2+ goals
73%
Boulder County United 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Colorado ISA (draw refunded)
19%
Boulder County United (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado ISA at home — creates 0.76, concedes 3.38 · 29 matches

Boulder County United away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado ISA attack 0.76 + Boulder County United defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.18

Boulder County United attack 1.80 + Colorado ISA defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Colorado ISA scores more
16%
level
17%
Boulder County United scores more
67%

Boulder County United at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Boulder County United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colorado ISA vs Boulder County United

Boulder County United beat Colorado ISA 3-1 in USL League Two on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Englewood High School Stadium in Englewood, Colorado.