Boulder County United 1–0 Colorado ISA

Boulder County United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Colorado ISA

7/17/2023

USL League Two · Western Conference - 15Peak to Peak Charter School Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Boulder County United59%

×Draw19%

Colorado ISA22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boulder County UnitedExpected goals in this matchColorado ISA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.43

Boulder County United

2.44

Colorado ISA

1.43

Boulder County United creates 71% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 29 away

1.60

creates per match

0.86

2.00

allows per match

3.28

creates per match

Boulder County United

1.60

Colorado ISA

0.86

allows per match

Boulder County United

2.00

Colorado ISA

3.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boulder County United+0.00on par

Colorado ISA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boulder County United ↓

Colorado ISA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Boulder County United or draw

78%

Boulder County United or Colorado ISA

81%

Draw or Colorado ISA

41%

Winning margin

Boulder County United wins by 2+

38%

Colorado ISA wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Boulder County United 1+ goals

91%

Boulder County United 2+ goals

70%

Boulder County United 3+ goals

43%

Colorado ISA 1+ goals

76%

Colorado ISA 2+ goals

42%

Colorado ISA 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Boulder County United (draw refunded)

73%

Colorado ISA (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boulder County United at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Colorado ISA away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.28 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boulder County United attack 1.60 + Colorado ISA defence 3.28 → ÷2 → 2.44

Colorado ISA attack 0.86 + Boulder County United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Boulder County United scores more

59%

level

19%

Colorado ISA scores more

22%

Boulder County United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Boulder County United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Boulder County United 1–0 Colorado ISA

Boulder County United beat Colorado ISA 1-0 in USL League Two on July 17, 2023.

The match was played at Peak to Peak Charter School Field in Lafayette, Colorado.

Boulder County United vs Colorado ISA — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

USL League Two: Boulder County United 1–0 Colorado ISA