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Colonia Moscardó vs Canillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Colonia Moscardó
Colonia Moscardó
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Canillas
Canillas
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 32Estadio Román Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Colonia Moscardó40%
×Draw25%
Canillas35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colonia Moscardó
1.50
Canillas
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 49 away

creates per match

Colonia Moscardó
1.14
Canillas
1.04

allows per match

Colonia Moscardó
1.73
Canillas
1.86

finishing

Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par
Canillas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colonia Moscardó ↓

Canillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Colonia Moscardó or draw
65%
Colonia Moscardó or Canillas
75%
Draw or Canillas
60%

Winning margin

Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+
19%
Canillas wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals
78%
Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals
44%
Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals
19%
Canillas 1+ goals
75%
Canillas 2+ goals
40%
Canillas 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)
53%
Canillas (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colonia Moscardó at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 37 matches

Canillas away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.86 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colonia Moscardó attack 1.14 + Canillas defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

Canillas attack 1.04 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Colonia Moscardó scores more
40%
level
25%
Canillas scores more
35%

Colonia Moscardó at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Colonia Moscardó will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colonia Moscardó vs Canillas

Colonia Moscardó beat Canillas 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Román Valero in Madrid.