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Canillas vs Colonia Moscardó — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Canillas
Canillas
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Colonia Moscardó
Colonia Moscardó
1/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 15Estadio Canillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Canillas44%
×Draw27%
Colonia Moscardó29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canillas
1.37
Colonia Moscardó
1.07

Canillas creates 28% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 37 away

creates per match

Canillas
1.04
Colonia Moscardó
0.70

allows per match

Canillas
1.45
Colonia Moscardó
1.70

finishing

Canillas+0.00on par
Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canillas ↓

Colonia Moscardó →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Canillas or draw
71%
Canillas or Colonia Moscardó
73%
Draw or Colonia Moscardó
56%

Winning margin

Canillas wins by 2+
21%
Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Canillas 1+ goals
75%
Canillas 2+ goals
40%
Canillas 3+ goals
16%
Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals
66%
Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals
29%
Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Canillas (draw refunded)
60%
Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canillas at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.45 · 49 matches

Colonia Moscardó away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canillas attack 1.04 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.37

Colonia Moscardó attack 0.70 + Canillas defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Canillas scores more
44%
level
27%
Colonia Moscardó scores more
29%

Canillas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Canillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Canillas vs Colonia Moscardó

Canillas beat Colonia Moscardó 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Canillas in Madrid.