Colonia Moscardó 1–4 Alcorcón II: Result & Stats

Colonia Moscardó

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Alcorcón II

12/4/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 16Estadio Román Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Colonia Moscardó28%

×Draw26%

Alcorcón II46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colonia MoscardóExpected goals in this matchAlcorcón II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.50

Colonia Moscardó

1.12

Alcorcón II

1.50

Alcorcón II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 97 away

1.14

creates per match

1.26

1.73

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Colonia Moscardó

1.14

Alcorcón II

1.26

allows per match

Colonia Moscardó

1.73

Alcorcón II

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par

Alcorcón II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colonia Moscardó ↓

Alcorcón II →

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Colonia Moscardó or draw

54%

Colonia Moscardó or Alcorcón II

74%

Draw or Alcorcón II

72%

Winning margin

Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+

11%

Alcorcón II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals

67%

Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals

31%

Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals

10%

Alcorcón II 1+ goals

78%

Alcorcón II 2+ goals

44%

Alcorcón II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)

38%

Alcorcón II (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Colonia Moscardó at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 37 matches

Alcorcón II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Colonia Moscardó attack 1.14 + Alcorcón II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.12

Alcorcón II attack 1.26 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Colonia Moscardó scores more

28%

level

26%

Alcorcón II scores more

46%

Alcorcón II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff