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Alcorcón II vs Colonia Moscardó — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcorcón II
Alcorcón II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Colonia Moscardó
Colonia Moscardó
10/1/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 4Campo 2 Alcorcón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Alcorcón II56%
×Draw25%
Colonia Moscardó19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcón II
1.59
Colonia Moscardó
0.82

Alcorcón II creates 94% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 37 away

creates per match

Alcorcón II
1.48
Colonia Moscardó
0.70

allows per match

Alcorcón II
0.94
Colonia Moscardó
1.70

finishing

Alcorcón II+0.00on par
Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcón II ↓

Colonia Moscardó →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alcorcón II or draw
81%
Alcorcón II or Colonia Moscardó
75%
Draw or Colonia Moscardó
44%

Winning margin

Alcorcón II wins by 2+
30%
Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Alcorcón II 1+ goals
80%
Alcorcón II 2+ goals
47%
Alcorcón II 3+ goals
21%
Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals
56%
Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals
20%
Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alcorcón II (draw refunded)
74%
Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 99 matches

Colonia Moscardó away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcón II attack 1.48 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.59

Colonia Moscardó attack 0.70 + Alcorcón II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Alcorcón II scores more
56%
level
25%
Colonia Moscardó scores more
19%

Alcorcón II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcorcón II vs Colonia Moscardó

Alcorcón II beat Colonia Moscardó 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Campo 2 Alcorcón in Alcorcón.