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Colón vs Artigas — Segunda División 2025

Colón
Colón
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Artigas
Artigas
L. Cuero 42'
Unknown 45+2'
7/26/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 12Parque Palermo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Colón48%
×Draw26%
Artigas26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colón
1.52
Artigas
1.04

Colón creates 46% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 15 away

creates per match

Colón
1.52
Artigas
1.20

allows per match

Colón
0.88
Artigas
1.53

finishing

Colón+0.00on par
Artigas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colón ↓

Artigas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Colón or draw
74%
Colón or Artigas
74%
Draw or Artigas
52%

Winning margin

Colón wins by 2+
24%
Artigas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Colón 1+ goals
78%
Colón 2+ goals
45%
Colón 3+ goals
20%
Artigas 1+ goals
65%
Artigas 2+ goals
28%
Artigas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Colón (draw refunded)
65%
Artigas (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colón at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

Artigas away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colón attack 1.52 + Artigas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Artigas attack 1.20 + Colón defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Colón scores more
48%
level
26%
Artigas scores more
26%

Colón at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Colón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
L. Cuero
45+2'
70'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colón vs Artigas

Colón and Artigas drew 1-1 in Segunda División on July 26, 2025.

Goals: L. Cuero (42'), ? (45+2').

The match was played at Parque Palermo in Montevideo.