Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Artigas vs Colón — Segunda División 2025

Artigas
Artigas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Colón
Colón
L. Troncoso 90+6'
N. Leites 73'
10/18/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Artigas24%
×Draw27%
Colón49%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Artigas
0.91
Colón
1.42

Colón creates 56% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 25 away

creates per match

Artigas
1.13
Colón
0.96

allows per match

Artigas
1.88
Colón
0.68

finishing

Artigas+0.00on par
Colón+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artigas ↓

Colón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Artigas or draw
51%
Artigas or Colón
73%
Draw or Colón
76%

Winning margin

Artigas wins by 2+
8%
Colón wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Artigas 1+ goals
60%
Artigas 2+ goals
23%
Artigas 3+ goals
6%
Colón 1+ goals
76%
Colón 2+ goals
41%
Colón 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Artigas (draw refunded)
33%
Colón (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artigas at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Colón away — creates 0.96, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artigas attack 1.13 + Colón defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.91

Colón attack 0.96 + Artigas defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Artigas scores more
24%
level
27%
Colón scores more
49%

Colón at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Colón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

73'
N. Leites
90+6'
L. Troncoso

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Artigas 2–0 Colón

Artigas beat Colón 2-0 in Segunda División on October 18, 2025.

Goals: N. Leites (73'), L. Troncoso (90+6').