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Colon Santa Fe vs Almirante Brown — Primera Nacional 2026

Colon Santa Fe
Colon Santa Fe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Almirante Brown
Almirante Brown
2/18/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 3Estadio Brigadier General Estanislao López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Colon Santa Fe48%
×Draw30%
Almirante Brown22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colon Santa Fe
1.21
Almirante Brown
0.72

Colon Santa Fe creates 68% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 102 away

creates per match

Colon Santa Fe
1.15
Almirante Brown
0.85

allows per match

Colon Santa Fe
0.59
Almirante Brown
1.26

finishing

Colon Santa Fe+0.00on par
Almirante Brown+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colon Santa Fe ↓

Almirante Brown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Colon Santa Fe or draw
78%
Colon Santa Fe or Almirante Brown
70%
Draw or Almirante Brown
52%

Winning margin

Colon Santa Fe wins by 2+
21%
Almirante Brown wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Colon Santa Fe 1+ goals
70%
Colon Santa Fe 2+ goals
34%
Colon Santa Fe 3+ goals
12%
Almirante Brown 1+ goals
51%
Almirante Brown 2+ goals
16%
Almirante Brown 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Colon Santa Fe (draw refunded)
68%
Almirante Brown (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colon Santa Fe at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.59 · 46 matches

Almirante Brown away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colon Santa Fe attack 1.15 + Almirante Brown defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Almirante Brown attack 0.85 + Colon Santa Fe defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Colon Santa Fe scores more
48%
level
30%
Almirante Brown scores more
22%

Colon Santa Fe at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Colon Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Colon Santa Fe 2–1 Almirante Brown

Colon Santa Fe beat Almirante Brown 2-1 in Primera Nacional on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Brigadier General Estanislao López in Ciudad de Santa Fe, Provincia de Santa Fe.