Almirante Brown 0–0 Colon Santa Fe: Result & Stats

Almirante Brown

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Colon Santa Fe

7/7/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 22Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Almirante Brown42%

×Draw32%

Colon Santa Fe26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almirante BrownExpected goals in this matchColon Santa Fe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.76

Almirante Brown

1.07

Colon Santa Fe

0.76

Almirante Brown creates 41% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 48 away

0.97

creates per match

0.77

0.75

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Almirante Brown

0.97

Colon Santa Fe

0.77

allows per match

Almirante Brown

0.75

Colon Santa Fe

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almirante Brown+0.00on par

Colon Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almirante Brown ↓

Colon Santa Fe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Almirante Brown or draw

74%

Almirante Brown or Colon Santa Fe

68%

Draw or Colon Santa Fe

58%

Winning margin

Almirante Brown wins by 2+

17%

Colon Santa Fe wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Almirante Brown 1+ goals

66%

Almirante Brown 2+ goals

29%

Almirante Brown 3+ goals

9%

Colon Santa Fe 1+ goals

53%

Colon Santa Fe 2+ goals

18%

Colon Santa Fe 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Almirante Brown (draw refunded)

62%

Colon Santa Fe (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almirante Brown at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.75 · 104 matches

Colon Santa Fe away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almirante Brown attack 0.97 + Colon Santa Fe defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Colon Santa Fe attack 0.77 + Almirante Brown defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Almirante Brown scores more

42%

level

32%

Colon Santa Fe scores more

26%

Almirante Brown at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Almirante Brown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff