Colombe 1–1 PWD Bamenda: Result & Stats | Elite One

Colombe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

PWD Bamenda

6/22/2025

Elite One · Round 29Stade de Ngoa Ekélé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Colombe46%

×Draw28%

PWD Bamenda26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColombeExpected goals in this matchPWD Bamenda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.90

Colombe

1.29

PWD Bamenda

0.90

Colombe creates 43% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 99 away

1.41

creates per match

1.01

0.78

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Colombe

1.41

PWD Bamenda

1.01

allows per match

Colombe

0.78

PWD Bamenda

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colombe+0.00on par

PWD Bamenda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colombe ↓

PWD Bamenda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Colombe or draw

74%

Colombe or PWD Bamenda

72%

Draw or PWD Bamenda

54%

Winning margin

Colombe wins by 2+

21%

PWD Bamenda wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Colombe 1+ goals

72%

Colombe 2+ goals

37%

Colombe 3+ goals

14%

PWD Bamenda 1+ goals

59%

PWD Bamenda 2+ goals

23%

PWD Bamenda 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Colombe (draw refunded)

64%

PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colombe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 91 matches

PWD Bamenda away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.18 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colombe attack 1.41 + PWD Bamenda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.29

PWD Bamenda attack 1.01 + Colombe defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Colombe scores more

46%

level

28%

PWD Bamenda scores more

26%

Colombe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Colombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff