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Colombe vs Avion Academy — Elite One 2019

Colombe
Colombe
FT
2 – 1
Avion Academy
Avion Academy
2/2/2020Elite OneElite One · Round 19Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Colombe49%
×Draw28%
Avion Academy23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colombe
1.33
Avion Academy
0.80

Colombe creates 66% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 67 away

creates per match

Colombe
1.41
Avion Academy
0.82

allows per match

Colombe
0.78
Avion Academy
1.25

finishing

Colombe+0.00on par
Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colombe ↓

Avion Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Colombe or draw
77%
Colombe or Avion Academy
72%
Draw or Avion Academy
51%

Winning margin

Colombe wins by 2+
23%
Avion Academy wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Colombe 1+ goals
74%
Colombe 2+ goals
38%
Colombe 3+ goals
15%
Avion Academy 1+ goals
55%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
19%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Colombe (draw refunded)
69%
Avion Academy (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colombe at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 91 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colombe attack 1.41 + Avion Academy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Avion Academy attack 0.82 + Colombe defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Colombe scores more
49%
level
28%
Avion Academy scores more
23%

Colombe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Colombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colombe vs Avion Academy

Colombe beat Avion Academy 2-1 in Elite One on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo in Mbankomo.