Avion Academy 3–3 Colombe: Result & Stats

Avion Academy

FT

3 – 3

Colombe

11/2/2022

Elite One · Round 4Stade Annexe 2 de Japoma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Avion Academy32%

×Draw30%

Colombe38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avion AcademyExpected goals in this matchColombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.10

Avion Academy

1.00

Colombe

1.10

Colombe creates 10% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 92 away

1.06

creates per match

1.18

1.03

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Avion Academy

1.06

Colombe

1.18

allows per match

Avion Academy

1.03

Colombe

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avion Academy+0.00on par

Colombe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avion Academy ↓

Colombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Avion Academy or draw

62%

Avion Academy or Colombe

70%

Draw or Colombe

68%

Winning margin

Avion Academy wins by 2+

12%

Colombe wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Avion Academy 1+ goals

63%

Avion Academy 2+ goals

26%

Avion Academy 3+ goals

8%

Colombe 1+ goals

67%

Colombe 2+ goals

30%

Colombe 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Avion Academy (draw refunded)

46%

Colombe (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avion Academy at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.03 · 63 matches

Colombe away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avion Academy attack 1.06 + Colombe defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Colombe attack 1.18 + Avion Academy defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Avion Academy scores more

32%

level

30%

Colombe scores more

38%

Colombe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Colombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff