Colo Colo 0–2 Cobreloa: Result & Stats

Colo Colo

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cobreloa

G. Rodríguez 66'

C. Insaurralde 27'

4/16/2024

Primera División · Round 8Estadio Monumental David Arellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Colo Colo68%

×Draw19%

Cobreloa13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colo ColoExpected goals in this matchCobreloa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.81

Colo Colo

2.17

Cobreloa

0.81

Colo Colo creates 168% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 15 away

1.68

creates per match

0.87

0.75

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Colo Colo

1.68

Cobreloa

0.87

allows per match

Colo Colo

0.75

Cobreloa

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colo Colo+0.00on par

Cobreloa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colo Colo ↓

Cobreloa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Colo Colo or draw

87%

Colo Colo or Cobreloa

81%

Draw or Cobreloa

32%

Winning margin

Colo Colo wins by 2+

44%

Cobreloa wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Colo Colo 1+ goals

89%

Colo Colo 2+ goals

64%

Colo Colo 3+ goals

36%

Cobreloa 1+ goals

56%

Cobreloa 2+ goals

19%

Cobreloa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Colo Colo (draw refunded)

84%

Cobreloa (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colo Colo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.75 · 114 matches

Cobreloa away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colo Colo attack 1.68 + Cobreloa defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Cobreloa attack 0.87 + Colo Colo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Colo Colo scores more

68%

level

19%

Cobreloa scores more

13%

Colo Colo at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

N. Avellaneda

Cobreloa · G

9.3

Match Events

27'

C. Insaurralde

35'

G. Rodríguez← F. Arancibia

40'

41'

43'

43'

46'

58'

R. Hernández← C. Bravo

58'

J. Soto← B. Monroy

66'

G. Rodríguez↳ R. Hernández

75'

L. Benegas← M. Falcón

81'

84'

86'

87'

87'

87'

89'

90+2'

F. De Paul← M. Bolados

90+2'

D. González← G. Rodríguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColoCobreloa

Overview

77%Possession23%

29Total Shots5

3.83Expected Goals (xG)0.59

16Corners1

2Fouls11

Shots

29Total Shots5

11On Target3

13Off Target2

5Blocked0

19Inside Box3

10Outside Box2

Passing

77%Possession23%

600Total Passes186

520Accurate Passes101

87%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

1Saves11

Discipline

2Fouls11

2Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards2

1Offsides2