Cobreloa 0–1 Colo Colo: Result & Stats

Cobreloa

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Colo Colo

L. Gil 36'

9/1/2024

Primera División · Round 23Estadio Zorros del Desierto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cobreloa32%

×Draw26%

Colo Colo42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CobreloaExpected goals in this matchColo Colo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.43

Cobreloa

1.22

Colo Colo

1.43

Colo Colo creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 115 away

1.33

creates per match

1.39

1.47

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Cobreloa

1.33

Colo Colo

1.39

allows per match

Cobreloa

1.47

Colo Colo

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cobreloa+0.00on par

Colo Colo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobreloa ↓

Colo Colo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cobreloa or draw

58%

Cobreloa or Colo Colo

74%

Draw or Colo Colo

68%

Winning margin

Cobreloa wins by 2+

13%

Colo Colo wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Cobreloa 1+ goals

70%

Cobreloa 2+ goals

34%

Cobreloa 3+ goals

12%

Colo Colo 1+ goals

76%

Colo Colo 2+ goals

42%

Colo Colo 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Cobreloa (draw refunded)

43%

Colo Colo (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobreloa at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.10 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobreloa attack 1.33 + Colo Colo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Colo Colo attack 1.39 + Cobreloa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cobreloa scores more

32%

level

26%

Colo Colo scores more

42%

Colo Colo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

L. Gil

Colo Colo · M

7.7

Match Events

23'

36'

46'

46'

46'

C. Zavala← L. Hernández

58'

Bastian Valdes

59'

J. Parraguez← L. Di Maio

71'

N. Orrego← M. Borgnino

74'

G. Castellani← C. Palacios

74'

V. Pizarro← L. Gil

85'

Javier Correa

85'

Emiliano Amor← M. Falcón

85'

G. Paiva← J. Correa

88'

C. Bravo← N. Palma

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CobreloaColo

Overview

56%Possession44%

10Total Shots8

0.83Expected Goals (xG)1.30

2Corners2

7Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots8

4On Target4

4Off Target3

2Blocked1

7Inside Box4

3Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

449Total Passes367

373Accurate Passes287

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2