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Colo Colo vs Barcelona BA — Baiano - 2 2019

Colo Colo
Colo Colo
FT
4 – 1
Barcelona BA
Barcelona BA
11/22/2020Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 5Estádio Mário Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Colo Colo56%
×Draw25%
Barcelona BA19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colo Colo
1.61
Barcelona BA
0.83

Colo Colo creates 94% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 7 away

creates per match

Colo Colo
0.65
Barcelona BA
1.14

allows per match

Colo Colo
0.53
Barcelona BA
2.57

finishing

Colo Colo+0.00on par
Barcelona BA+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colo Colo ↓

Barcelona BA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Colo Colo or draw
81%
Colo Colo or Barcelona BA
75%
Draw or Barcelona BA
44%

Winning margin

Colo Colo wins by 2+
30%
Barcelona BA wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Colo Colo 1+ goals
80%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
48%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
22%
Barcelona BA 1+ goals
56%
Barcelona BA 2+ goals
20%
Barcelona BA 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Colo Colo (draw refunded)
74%
Barcelona BA (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colo Colo at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

Barcelona BA away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colo Colo attack 0.65 + Barcelona BA defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.61

Barcelona BA attack 1.14 + Colo Colo defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Colo Colo scores more
56%
level
25%
Barcelona BA scores more
19%

Colo Colo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Colo Colo 4–1 Barcelona BA

Colo Colo beat Barcelona BA 4-1 in Baiano - 2 on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Mário Pessoa in Ilhéus, Bahia.