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Barcelona BA vs Colo Colo — Baiano - 2 2019

Barcelona BA
Barcelona BA
FT
2 – 1
Colo Colo
Colo Colo
7/4/2021Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 2Estádio Mário Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Barcelona BA50%
×Draw25%
Colo Colo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona BA
1.57
Colo Colo
1.04

Barcelona BA creates 51% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

creates per match

Barcelona BA
2.33
Colo Colo
1.59

allows per match

Barcelona BA
0.50
Colo Colo
0.82

finishing

Barcelona BA+0.00on par
Colo Colo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona BA ↓

Colo Colo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Barcelona BA or draw
75%
Barcelona BA or Colo Colo
75%
Draw or Colo Colo
50%

Winning margin

Barcelona BA wins by 2+
26%
Colo Colo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Barcelona BA 1+ goals
79%
Barcelona BA 2+ goals
46%
Barcelona BA 3+ goals
21%
Colo Colo 1+ goals
65%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
28%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Barcelona BA (draw refunded)
66%
Colo Colo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona BA at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona BA attack 2.33 + Colo Colo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.57

Colo Colo attack 1.59 + Barcelona BA defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Barcelona BA scores more
50%
level
25%
Colo Colo scores more
25%

Barcelona BA at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Barcelona BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barcelona BA vs Colo Colo

Barcelona BA beat Colo Colo 2-1 in Baiano - 2 on July 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Mário Pessoa in Ilhéus, Bahia.